Monday, June 5, 2017
11:00 - 12:30

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11:00 - 11:15: / 306C ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LAKE FISHES IN MICHIGAN

6/05/2017  |   11:00 - 11:15   |  306C

ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LAKE FISHES IN MICHIGAN We assessed the sensitivity of lake habitat and fishes to future climate change for 6,500 lakes in Michigan. We first developed a model to estimate the seasonal thermal regime of lakes based on mean annual air temperature and lake size. We then developed boosted regression tree models to predict presence-absence of 25 fish species under current climate conditions. Model accuracies ranged from 60 to 80% and included variables that characterize lake position, size, connectivity, and thermal regime. We then used these models to estimate statewide patterns of species distribution and to assess how these patterns will change under 13 regionally downscaled climate change scenarios. Sensitivity of lake habitat and fishes varied spatially and by thermal guild. Northern lakes experienced the largest change in habitat suitability while southern Michigan lakes were more resilient. The number of lakes suitable for warmwater species showed modest increases while the number of lakes suitable for cool- and coldwater species declined dramatically. Our lake-specific assessment enables managers to identify sensitive water bodies and species and to develop appropriate management and conservation strategies.

Kevin Wehrly (Primary Presenter/Author), Michigan Department of Natural Resources, wehrlyk@michigan.gov;


James Breck ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), University of Michigan, breck@umich.edu;


Lizhu Wang ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), International Joint Commission, Great Lakes Office, wangl@windsor.ijc.org;


Arthur Cooper ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), Michigan State University, coopera6@msu.edu;


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11:15 - 11:30: / 306C CLIMATE CHANGE AND CUTTHROAT TROUT CONSERVATION IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS: THE PARADOX OF CONNECTIVITY

6/05/2017  |   11:15 - 11:30   |  306C

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CUTTHROAT TROUT CONSERVATION IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS: THE PARADOX OF CONNECTIVITY Mountain streams and lakes are important refuge habitats for native fishes and are influenced by climate change through shifting thermal and hydrological regimes. Cutthroat Trout (CT; Oncorhynchus clarkii) in the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM) inhabit small fractions of their historic ranges and current populations are found in fragments of habitat in mountain streams and lakes. Therefore, a cornerstone of CT conservation strategies involve increasing the connectivity of stream and lake habitats (via increased stream length or habitat area) to provide greater habitat heterogeneity, thereby bolstering the resilience of CT populations. However, a tradeoff is that upstream invasion by non-native fishes also threaten persistence of CT, and a management strategy to prevent these invasions are movement barriers that intentionally fragment watersheds. These multiple stressors create the need to balance competing demands for increased connectivity with intentional fragmentation. We present results that show how SRM lakes and streams are important habitats for CT conservation, different ways these habitats are warming (e.g., SRM lakes +0.47°C·decade-1 and streams +0.17°C·decade-1), and predict persistence of CT using a framework that incorporates multiple stressors.

James J. Roberts (Primary Presenter/Author), U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO 80526, jroberts@usgs.gov;


Kurt D. Fausch ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), Colorado State University, Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Fort Collins, CO 80523, Kurt.Fausch@colostate.edu;


Kevin B. Rogers ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Steamboat Springs, CO 80477, kevin.rogers@state.co.us;


Mevin B. Hooten ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), U. S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Fort Collins, CO 80523, hooten@rams.colostate.edu;


Douglas P. Peterson ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Abernathy Fish Technology Center, Longview, WA 98632, doug_peterson@fws.gov;


Travis S. Schmidt ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO 80526, tschmidt@usgs.gov;


Andrew S. Todd ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), U. S. Geological Survey, Crustal Geophysics and Geochemistry Science Center, Denver, CO 80225, atodd@usgs.gov;


David Walters ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), US Geological Survey, waltersd@usgs.gov;


Mattew P. Zeigler ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), New Mexico Department of Game and Fish, Santa Fe, NM 87507, Matthew.Zeigler@state.nm.us;


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11:30 - 11:45: / 306C GROWTH AND FORAGING PATTERNS OF JUVENILE CHINOOK AND COHO SALMON IN THREE GEOMORPHICALLY DISTINCT SUB-BASINS OF THE KENAI RIVER

6/05/2017  |   11:30 - 11:45   |  306C

Growth and Foraging Patterns of Juvenile Chinook and Coho Salmon in Three Geomorphically Distinct Sub-Basins of the Kenai River Changes in air temperature and precipitation from climate warming in south-central Alaska affects juvenile salmon freshwater rearing habitat differently, dependent on local watershed properties. Many south-central Alaskan salmon streams already experience water temperatures above Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation’s maximum thermal criteria of 15°C during summer months. Water temperature and food resources are key controls on juvenile salmon growth; however, the influence of temporal and spatial patterns in these variables is not well characterized. We surveyed (2015-2016) a lowland-to-montane spectrum of catchment types within the Kenai River watershed with differing potential vulnerabilities to warming air temperatures. Temperature, diet, and growth data are being incorporated into bioenergetics models that will allow us to determine the degree to which growth rates of juvenile salmon are limited by consumption rates and water temperature. Preliminary results indicate that low-elevation tributaries appear more influenced by air temperature, and rearing salmon in these environments are expected to be exposed to future temperatures outside physiological optimum more frequently than montane habitats.

Benjamin Meyer (Primary Presenter/Author), University Of Alaska Fairbanks, bemeyer@alaska.edu;


Mark Wipfli ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), University of Alaska Fairbanks, mwipfli@alaska.edu;


Daniel Rinella ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, daniel_rinella@fws.gov;


Erik Schoen ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), University of Alaska Fairbanks, eschoen@alaska.edu;


Jeff Falke ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), University of Alaska Fairbanks, jeffrey.falke@alaska.edu;


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11:45 - 12:00: / 306C EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE ON LARGE LAKE FISHERIES AROUND THE WORLD

6/05/2017  |   11:45 - 12:00   |  306C

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE ON LARGE LAKE FISHERIES AROUND THE WORLD Understanding effects of climate and land use changes on the production of large lake fisheries is critical because they provide for livelihoods, nutrition, food security, and recreation in different parts of the world. In this study, we used a Bayesian network modeling approach to investigate effects of climate and land use changes on fisheries production across 30 large lakes in 5 continents. The analytical framework was to model effects of climate and land use changes in the watershed on primary production, water level, and water temperature in the lake, and consequential effects on observed fisheries harvests in the period of 1970–2014. In addition, these 30 lakes were categorized by depth and food and water security levels, as these two factors influence the extent to which climate or land use changes affect fisheries production. Results from this study will have implications for identifying lakes that are most vulnerable to climate and land use changes, which is needed information for managers (e.g., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) who have been challenged to ensure sustainable fisheries for food security and human welfare.

Yu-Chun Kao (Primary Presenter/Author), Michigan State University, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, kaoyc@msu.edu;


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12:00 - 12:15: / 306C INVESTIGATING INTERACTIONS BETWEEN RANGE EXPANDING AND RESIDENT PREDATORY FISHES USING MULTIPLE MODES OF INFERENCE

6/05/2017  |   12:00 - 12:15   |  306C

INVESTIGATING INTERACTIONS BETWEEN RANGE EXPANDING AND RESIDENT PREDATORY FISHES USING MULTIPLE MODES OF INFERENCE Warm-water fish predators are expanding their northern range boundaries, establishing in Ontario lakes that were previously too cold. Co-occurrence of Smallmouth Bass (warm-water) and Walleye (cool-water) is becoming more common and is associated with reduced abundance of both species. We test for evidence of competition and predation between resident Walleye and range-expanding Bass. We use morphology to examine niche overlap across ontogeny. We also examine differences in growth and population size-distributions in lakes where these species occur separately and together. Abiotic gradients contribute to population differences making it necessary to control for environmental variation when comparing populations to investigate the impacts of biotic interactions. Morphological differences suggest that Walleye and Bass are more likely to compete as juveniles than as adults. Walleye in lakes with Bass appear to grow faster than those in lakes without Bass indicating selection for fast growth to escape gape-limited predation. Together, this evidence suggests that population demography is influenced by biotic interactions between predators during early life stages. Changes in size-distributions, however, were equivocal reflecting the complexity of understanding demographic trends across regional scales.

Karen Alofs (Primary Presenter/Author), University of Toronto, kmalofs@gmail.com;


Donald Jackson ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), University of Toronto, don.jackson@utoronto.ca;


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12:15 - 12:30: / 306C UNDERSTANDING WARMING WATERS: KNOWLEDGE FROM MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS, AND REMAINING QUESTIONS

6/05/2017  |   12:15 - 12:30   |  306C

UNDERSTANDING WARMING WATERS: KNOWLEDGE FROM MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS, AND REMAINING QUESTIONS Substantial warming has been documented for inland waters and will likely impact ecosystem processes. As temperatures in many of our lakes and streams continue to rise, climate adaptation strategies for fisheries would benefit from a greater understanding of the controls on thermal refugia and predictions of these characteristics for individual water bodies. Through a combination of approaches, much is known of the magnitude and spatial patterns of warming, and likely trajectories of future change. We will share findings from global and national data syntheses, and from our empirical and modeling efforts to characterize temperature dynamics in over ten thousand US lakes. These results have been used to help explain among-lake differences in the magnitude and direction of observed changes in fish distributions. Other challenges that remain for fisheries climate adaptation will be discussed and include improved understanding of deeper water temperature changes, impacts of lake/stream coupling on refugia, and data limitations. Despite these key knowledge gaps, our improved understanding of inland water temperatures can be applied today, as projections of future habitat highlight opportunities for fisheries management on climate-resilient lakes.

Jordan Read (Primary Presenter/Author), US Geological Survey, jread@usgs.gov;


Luke Winslow ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, winsll2@rpi.edu;


Gretchen Hansen ( Co-Presenter/Co-Author), MN Department of Natural Resources, Gretchen.Hansen@state.mn.us;


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